If the number of doctors is increased to the government's eye patch, the number of doctors will exceed 11,481 after 10 years
Feb 06, 2025
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Researchers at the institute (main author: Park Jeong-hoon, co-authors: Lee Jung-chan, Kim Gye-hyun, Shin Yo-han, corresponding author: Moon Seok-kyun) have published the results of a study on the supply and demand of doctors titled 'Expansion of medical school admission quota in Korea, is it really rare?' in the international academic journal 'BMC PUBLIC HEALTH (January 25th, local time)'.
BMC PUBLIC HEALTH is an international academic journal (SCIE) published by the British Springer (Biomed Central Ltd.).
The study pointed to the problem that the government unilaterally pushed for a rapid policy to increase medical schools despite doctors' opposition to the increase in medical schools based on domestic and international research results and various indicators that there is no shortage of doctors in Korea. In particular, it predicted the trend of excessive or insufficient supply of Korean doctors in the future due to the government's policy to increase medical schools by 2035.
The research model compared the doctor supply estimate with the medical demand estimate to estimate the number of doctors required to provide medical services. The inflow and outflow method was used to estimate the supply of doctors, and the medical demand was calculated by target year through the amount of medical expenses per person by gender and age group by 5 years old as of 2022. Various scenarios for the doctor supply forecast were applied to check the supply and demand status of doctors.
Assuming that the number of existing medical schools is maintained in this study, in Scenario 4, which applied 289.5 days, the actual number of Korean doctors' working days, the number of doctors required was 118,393 in 2025, 133,394 in 2031, and 130,012 in 2035, respectively.
In addition, if the number of people actually increased by 1509 in 2025 and 2,000 later, in Scenario 4, which applied 289.5 days, the actual number of Korean doctors' working days, the number of doctors needed was 133,394 in 2031 and 139,012 in 2035, confirming the excess of 4,052 in 2031 and 11,481 in 2035.
As a result of the study, the Korean government's policy to increase medical schools showed that the supply and demand of doctors in 2035 was 1300 short of 11,481 oversupply depending on the working day scenario. The government's claim that there would be a shortage of 10,000 doctors in 2035 was similar in the 265-day application scenario, which underestimated the number of working days in the study. However, it was found that applying 289.5 days, the actual number of working days for Korean doctors, would not only lead to a shortage of doctors in 2035, but also an oversupply of 3,000 people, even if medical schools were not increased.
The researchers pointed out that the Korean government thinks that complex medical problems such as the recent "emergency room banging" and the collapse of local medical care can be solved through a trickle-down effect by simply increasing the number of doctors by increasing the number of medical school admissions, but the doctors that society wants are not made in a short time.
In addition, since the government-led unilateral doctor supply and demand plan is difficult to succeed, it is necessary to continuously discuss and agree on a mid- to long-term supply-demand estimation model and method considering Korea's medical environment through discussions with medical providers and related organizations.
In particular, in Korea, it is reasonable to see it as an imbalance problem in the distribution of doctors by region and specialized subjects rather than an absolute shortage of doctors, and accordingly, the government should focus on policies to solve the imbalance distribution problem, away from the fragmentary idea of simply increasing the number of doctors.
The medical center has been producing various research data in response to the government's unilateral policy to expand the number of medical schools. Although some studies have already predicted an excess of doctors, the government used only biased research results as a basis for expanding medical school quotas. Accordingly, the Korea Institute for Medical Policy has been publishing papers in international journals to inform the world of the problem of the Korean government's unilateral medical school quota policy and to secure public confidence in research materials. In particular, the authors of the paper are researchers who have produced various data in response to the government's increase in medical school capacity over the past few years.
We hope that the publication of the research results will serve as an opportunity to recognize the objectivity and public confidence of the researcher's research data, said Moon Seok-kyun (Professor of Otolaryngology at Chung-Ang University), a corresponding author of the study. We hope that the results of the research will serve as a basis for the government's policy improvement in the future." The council plans to disclose detailed research results through the upcoming medical policy forum (debate) and prepare a forum for public debate.
This article was translated by Naver AI translator.
