'300 Home Run'Jersey 500 Home Run → When will it reach 600 Home Runs? Based on the mathematical probability
Aug 17, 2024
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Judge reached the 300th home run mark for the 43rd time this season and 162nd time in Major League history against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on the 15th (Korea time).
Judge set a milestone in his last at-bat with one out and runners on first and second base in the top of the eighth inning with a 6-2 lead. When the opponent's right-hander Chad Kuhl's 4th pitch, 94.2 miles sinker penetrated the body, he pulled it as it was and hit a line drive home run with a launch angle of 23 degrees and a hitting speed of 110.1 miles to put it at 361 feet.
Judge, who made his debut in 2016, hit 300 home runs in 955 games, the fewest ever, and 3,431 at-bats. He broke all of Ralph Kiner's previous minimum record of 1,087 games and Babe Ruth's 3831 at-bats. Judge is the only player in history to hit 300 home runs within 1,000 games and 3,500 at-bats.
The day after Judge hit the milestone, MLB.com published an interesting article. It is about Judge's expected total number of home runs.
Reporter Andrew Simon, who wrote the article, approached Judge's expected home run through various data and mathematical methods. The discussion is complicated, so let's skip it and just summarize the contents of 'Age'.
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He also hit 300 home runs on the first day of his eight-year career. Born in April 1992, Judge was about 24 years and 109 days old when he debuted. Among the 28 players who hit more than 500 home runs in history, Mike Schmidt is the oldest player to debut. He made his debut against the New York Mets on September 13, 1972, when he was 22 years and 351 days old, and hit a career-high 548 home runs. The average age of 28 debutants is 20 years and 232 days. Therefore, Judge's debut age is 3 years and 242 days older than these averages.
Alex Rodriguez is the youngest at 27 years and 249 days when he achieves 300 home runs, and 11 out of 28 reached 300 home runs before the age of 30. Only five hit 300 home runs after his 32nd birthday like Judge. Gary Sheffield, Ted Williams and Mark McGuire hit 300 home runs in the 32-year-old season, and David Otis and Raphael Palmeiro hit 300 home runs in the 33-year-old season.
Compared to the members of the 500 Home Run Club, Judge's debut was more than three years late, but when he reached 300 Home Runs, the gap was drastically reduced. The key is how many home runs Judge will hit by the 39-year-old season in 2031, when his nine-year, $360 million contract ends.
Nelson Cruz (260), Otis (214), and Jim Tommy (208) have the most home runs since Barry Bonds, who led the steroid era. The FanGraphs predict Judge will hit 11 home runs and end the season. In other words, the number of home runs in the season is 54.
There are 189 remaining until the 500 home runs, and if an average of 48 are applied for four seasons from 2021 to 2024, it can be reached in the second half of 2028, based on the premise that they hit 54 this year. In addition, Judge may continue his active career after the end of this contract. Reporter Simon put these data together and calculated that Judge had an 82% probability of reaching 500 home runs and a 37% probability of 600 home runs.
jhno@sportschosun.com
