"Computer forecast is wrong", LAD reeling from SD-ARI's collaboration, where did you write it for 1.67 trillion?
Aug 16, 2024
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On the 16th (Korea time), MLB.com cited the NL West race as the first item in an article titled 「12 Most Amazing Events of the Season」. This is because the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks have continued their steep rise over the middle of the second half, threatening the Dodgers.
The Dodgers suffered a come-from-behind loss of 4-6 in an away game against the Milwaukee Brewers on the same day as the bullpen shook. The Dodgers, which marked 71 wins and 51 losses, narrowed their gap with San Diego and Arizona (both 69 wins and 53 losses), which are tied for second place in the district, to two games.
Until the end of the first half, the Dodgers had a seven-game gap with second-place Arizona. When the team won five consecutive games at the opening of the second half, it widened its gap with second-place San Diego to 8.5 games. However, the situation has changed since August. The Dodgers seem to be cooperating with San Diego and Arizona, which have been on the rise together.
San Diego and Arizona rank first and second in the second half of the 30 teams. San Diego has 19 wins and 4 losses (0.826) and Arizona has 20 wins and 5 losses (0.800), respectively. The Dodgers maintained their pace with 15 wins and 10 but fell to fifth place in the second half of the standings. Rather than the Dodgers' poor performance, it can be said that the speed of chasing San Diego and Arizona is enormous.
As a result, it is difficult to guarantee that the Dodgers can go straight to the Division Series by winning the Western Division.
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However, it should be noted that all three teams have more than 90% chance of advancing to the playoffs. Dodgers accounted for 99.6 percent, San Diego 95.4 percent, and Arizona 93.7 percent. In other words, unless something unexpected happens, all three teams will easily advance to the fall baseball league together. Three teams have never advanced to the playoffs side by side in the NL West.
MLB.com said the 'Divax won the NL last year, but was 16 games behind the division winners Dodgers in the regular season. When owner Ken Kendrick asked Front (after the season) if there was any way to make Arizona a leading team in the West, they honestly said no. The computer model gave the Dodgers' Debs a high score and was considered a leading candidate, saying 'But Arizona was aggressive during the offseason. The Padres also strengthened their pitching staff by recruiting Dylan Sheese. Both teams knew computers could be wrong, and they are proving it recently.
In other words, something that is difficult to happen in terms of probability has recently happened.
MLB.com said the "Divax is surprising to be in its current position despite Corbin Carroll's prolonged slump, and the Padres' rise is due to Jurickson Profar's career high-grade performance and the unexpected performance of Jackson Merrill, the Rookie of the Year nominee.
On the other hand, regarding the Dodgers, he wrote, "'The expectation that they will spend more than $1 billion in the offseason and become a great team that will go down in history is missing the expectation that they will spend more than $1 billion in the offseason.'" The Dodgers spent $1.232 billion (about 1.67 trillion won) last winter, including Shohei Ohtani ($700 million for 10 years), Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($325 million for 12 years), Tyler Glasnow ($136.5 million for 5 years), and Theosca Hernandez ($23.5 million for 1 year).
The Dodgers have four consecutive away games against Arizona at Chase Field from August 31 to September 3 and three consecutive home games against San Diego at Dodger Stadium from September 25 to 27. These are games to gauge the direction of winning the West Division.
jhno@sportschosun.com
