Kim Ha-sung, Otani, Kelly, will see all three in the fall baseball league 'Chance 93.6%' and are likely to advance to the first three teams in NL West history
Aug 16, 2024
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The Dodgers suffered a come-from-behind loss of 4-6 in an away game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on the 16th (Korea time).
The Dodgers gave up the victory in the bottom of the eighth inning with a 4-3 lead, with fourth pitcher Daniel Hudson giving up three hits and one walk, allowing three runs. Hudson got a double off the leadoff Jackson Churio, walked Mitchell and allowed an infield hit to William Contreras, loaded the bases with no outs, and gave up a tie after a left-handed hit by Willy Adames, and allowed two additional runs in the process of dealing with two subsequent batters with infield hits.
The Dodgers, which finished the four away games against Milwaukee with two wins and two losses, marked 71 wins and 51 losses. He is still leading the National League West, but the gap between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks (69-53), who were tied for second place in the West, has narrowed to two games.
At the end of the first half, the Dodgers had seven games behind second-place Arizona. When the team won five consecutive games at the opening of the second half, it widened its gap with second-place San Diego to 8.5 games. However, the situation has changed since then. With the Dodgers' jagged moves combined with the steep rise in Arizona and San Diego, the race to lead the West has now turned into a foggy situation.
If you look at the winning rate in the second half of the year, the answer comes out. San Diego ranks first in both leagues with 19 wins and 4 losses (0.826) and Arizona ranks second with 20 wins and 5 losses (0.800). The Dodgers slumped to fifth place with 15 wins and 10 losses. While the Dodgers were relatively stable, it can be said that San Diego and Arizona chased at a tremendous speed.
As a result, it is difficult to guarantee that the Dodgers can go straight to the Division Series by winning the Western Division.
The Dodgers' probability of winning the district, calculated by FanGraphs, was 62.5%, down 31.7% from 94.2% on the 23rd of last month, when they won five consecutive games. On the other hand, San Diego and Arizona's chances of winning the district championship were 22.0% and 15.5%, respectively, which increased significantly from 3.3% and 2.2%.
However, it should be noted that all three teams have more than 90% chance of advancing to the playoffs. Dodgers accounted for 99.7 percent, San Diego 95.8 percent, and Arizona 93.6 percent. In other words, unless something unexpected happens, all three teams will easily advance to the fall baseball league together. Three teams have never advanced to the playoffs side by side in the NL West.
In other words, San Diego's Kim Ha-sung, Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani and Arizona's Merrill Kelly are likely to face off in the playoffs.
After the regular season, the remaining NL playoff teams are the Philadelphia Phillies (98.7%) in the east, the Atlanta Braves (76.2%) and the Milwaukee Brewers (96.5%) in the middle.
jhno@sportschosun.com
