Are we watching this? After 43 years of ripening 'Dream Match', odds of Ohtani and Judge meeting at WS 67.8%
Oct 18, 2024
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Since the American League (AL) and the National League (NL) are equally composed of 15 teams, if you combine all teams in both leagues, you will get '15×15 = 225'.
Since the establishment of the World Series in 1903, there have been 72 matchups. Then, what is the most common matchup in the history of the 119 World Series until last year.
It's a match between teams representing both leagues, although you'll get a rough idea. The New York Yankees of the AL and the Los Angeles Dodgers of the NL faced off 11 times, the most in the World Series. It may be a painful history for Dodgers fans, but the Yankees won eight of them and reached the top.
The Yankees are also overwhelmingly No. 1 with 27 World Series wins. The Dodgers are sixth in the seventh inning. The number of league wins is also 40 for the Yankees and 25 for the Dodgers, showing a big difference. This is why the saying that the history of the Yankees is the history of the World Series came out.
It should be noted that the 11 World Series between the Yankees and Dodgers has been intensively held in just 41 years. The first World Series match between the two teams was in 1941, and the last was in 1981. It is 11 times that the two teams have reached the postseason at the same time in 42 years from 1982 to last year, but they have never been league champions side by side.
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In addition, the Dodgers ranked first with 3,941,252 home spectators this year, and the Yankees ranked fourth with 3,309,838. The Dodgers have topped the box office for 11 consecutive years since 2013. Therefore, the World Series between the two clubs deserves to be called 'Dream Match'. In the all-time World Series TV audience ranking, the 1978 Yankees-Dodgers match ranked first with 44.3 million and the 1981 match ranked third with 41.37 million.
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The Yankees will hold the third, fourth and fifth away games from the 18th with two wins by catching both the first and second ALCS games against the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium on the 15th and 16th.
In the best-of-seven post-season series, 69 out of 100 times have a team that wins Game 3 after one win and one loss. In other words, there is a 69 percent historical probability that the Dodgers will advance to the World Series. In addition, 76 of the 91 teams that captured both the first and second games took the series, so the Yankees' historical probability of passing the ALCS is 83.5%. It can be said that the Dodgers reached the seventh ridge and the Yankees reached the eighth ridge.
The probability of the two teams reaching the World Series together is 57.6% in statistical calculations.
However, the probability of the two teams advancing to the World Series, calculated through simulation by the FanGraphs until the 17th, is higher than the historical probability. The Yankees have an 87.3% chance of passing the LCS and the Dodgers 77.7%. There is a 67.8% chance that the two teams will reach the World Series side by side. However, the probability of winning the World Series calculated by FanGraphs is 44.8% for the Yankees and 41.8% for the Dodgers, which is slightly higher for the Yankees.
Considering the ongoing LCS game, all-time postseason records, and statistics companies' predictions, the Yankees-Dodgers World Series, which is about to be held once in a lifetime, is expected to be held soon.
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This is the reason why the Dodgers and Yankees rarely met on the top stage for 42 years. So if the two teams meet this time, it will be a more special event.
The World Series, where the two teams will meet, is drawing more attention because it will be a stage where the two non-exempt superstars will play with pride. It's Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. The two are playing the postseason after booking MVP side by side, regardless of who is better this year.
Coincidentally, neither of them has World Series experience. This is also history if Ohtani, who achieved 50 home runs and 50 steals for the first time in history, and Judge, who ranks first in both leagues, meet in the World Series. The atmosphere is ripe.
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jhno@sportschosun.com
